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Learn how to anticipate shifts in the drivers of innovation, then how to position your company’s service or product developments for maximum competitive impact. FACULTY: SANDMAN/ROTHBERG 2.0 CEU CREDIT Boston: June 21-22 Oct 25-26 In a world filled with uncertainty, long term planning is at best an art. The longer the forecasting horizon, the less accurate the traditional prediction tools are. Worse – change drivers that can change industry structural foundation and wreak havoc on your company’s business model are extremely hard to predict. Yet not all unknowns are also unknowable. There are some tools available to intelligence professionals everywhere to try and mitigate the uncertainty, and at least intelligently anticipate and warn about potential disruptions. In this course we cover several of them: the Bass model for predicting new product adoption, prediction markets (the tool used by Google) for using the “wisdom of the crowd” to predict competitive developments, and of course, Scenario Analysis which is probably the most effective tool available to assist in the development of more resilient strategies for your company. The module’s structure lays the foundation for Scenario Analysis by first taking the participants through a series of experimental exercises demonstrating the operation of cognitive biases in their judgment. These biases color the world view of both the intelligence professional and top management. They are responsible for resistance to early warning signs. While biases are hard to correct, research does present a few psychological “tricks” to allow the intelligence message to get past the initial resistance. Each participant will get to test his or her susceptibility to judgment biases. Following the mapping of cognitive filters, the first day proceeds to survey supplemental disruption “anticipation” techniques- Bass model and prediction markets - viable in specific situations of large uncertainty such as technological disruption and hard to predict competitive moves. Then, starting at the second half of Day 1 and proceeding to the end of Day 2, the course focuses on Scenario Analysis. Scenario Analysis is a means to explore multiple outcomes to complex or rapidly changing competitive situations. A perfect complement to War Gaming, which focuses on short to medium term predictions, Scenario Analysis allows the decision makers to form strategies suitable for the longer term future competitive landscape. It is a critical element of any company’s early warning system. Filled with real-world cases and examples, Scenario Analysis relies on identifying and examining drivers of uncertainty - those factors, forces, and/or trends that will propel a particular competitive situation forward. Drivers may include regulatory developments, competitive behavior, industry consolidation, and other external forces over which organizations have little or no control. You will learn how to apply key drivers to develop alternative outcomes and plan your strategic moves to match those expected outcomes. In this course - filled with cases and exercises - you will learn how to:
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